Sunday, October 26, 2008

FiveThirtyEight... electoral projections

If your passion is elections (USA), polls, or statistics, then this site will most likely interest you!

Here’s an example of what the folks behind the site do…
"The basic process for computing our Presidential projections consists of six steps:
1. Polling Average: Aggregate polling data, and weight it according to our reliability scores.
2. Trend Adjustment: Adjust the polling data for current trends.
3. Regression: Analyze demographic data in each state by means of regression analysis.
4. Snapshot: Combine the polling data with the regression analysis to produce an electoral snapshot. This is our estimate of what would happen if the election were held today.
5. Projection: Translate the snapshot into a projection of what will happen in November, by allocating out undecided voters and applying a discount to current polling leads based on historical trends.
6. Simulation: Simulate our results 10,000 times based on the results of the projection to account for the uncertainty in our estimates. The end result is a robust probabilistic assessment of what will happen in each state as well as in the nation as a whole."
You will see maps, charts, graphs, and commentary as you check out today’s polls, pollster ratings, Senate polls and projections, and electoral history. This site will be interesting to follow during the next ten days.


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